By Seth Masia
SOLAR TODAY deputy editor
A couple of weeks ago we reported two national polls, from Stanford University and a joint Yale/George Mason group, finding that about 75% of Americans want Congress to cap carbon emissions.
Now an NBC/Wall Street Journal reports that 63% of Americans support carbon-and-energy legislation (36% support it strongly), vs 31% opposed (17% oppose it strongly).
If twice as many Americans want climate legislation as oppose it (three to four times as many in some polls), why can't the Senate muster 60 votes for a climate bill? Obviously, a lot of senators don't read the polls, or don't care what they say. Why is that?
It's because that small minority in opposition is passionately devoted to their fossil-fuel revenue stream and willing to spend money to defend it (in 2009 the oil industry spent $168 million on lobbying, and the coal industry budget for lobbying in 2008 was $48 million). We may have twice as many people in favor of legislation, but on the whole we're not wealthy and we send political contributions to environmental organizations in $10 and $50 dribbles.
The mathematician Bruce Bueno de Mesquite uses game theory to predict political outcomes with, according to a CIA study, about 90% accuracy. His formula asks "Who has a stake in the issue? What do they say they want? How focused are they? And how much clout can they bring to bear?"
Polluting industries are focused and they have clout. The other 75% of us had better find a way to match it. As a first step, phone your senators and tell them you're one of the 75% of constituents who expect progressive action on climate and energy.
Seth Masia
Liz Merry
