SOLAR TODAY Blog

Our air-quality columnist Robert Ukeiley pointed out this morning that in April, for the first time, non-hydro renewable electric generation totaled more than 5 percent of the American total. Poking around in the monthly report from the Energy Information Administration, we learn that for April, non-hydro generation amounted to about 15.3 terawatt-hours, compared to 287.8 terawatt-hours from all energy sources. This computes out to 5.33%.

Doesn't sound like much, but recall that in 2009 wind and solar capacity in the United States grew roughly 40%, and that growth rate has been pretty consistent over the past five years. If we project that growth rate forward, and assume that hydro, coal and nuclear power sources will NOT grow (that's a pretty safe bet over the next 10 years), then wind, solar, biomass and geothermal sources can be expected to provide more than 10% of all electric power by the middle of 2012, 20% by 2014, 25% by 2015, and 50% by 2017. At that point, renewables replace coal.

By 2018, renewables can provide 75% of all electric power. Existing hydro and nuclear facilities easily make up the rest, and we're more-or-less carbon free. By 2019 we're at 100%. The nuclear plants can retire, and we can even give the rivers back to the salmon.

What happens to the coal industry in that scenario? We can expect a lot of kicking and screaming, but there's probably not much room for coal mines to cut prices enough to compete with free wind and sun. One thing I learned trying to run a profitable website is that it's very hard to compete with free.

This calculation may be a pipe dream, but it makes me feel a lot better about the flat refusal of conservative legislators to deal with climate and energy issues. Maybe, just maybe, market forces can save the world.